Uncertainty & correlation
Dependence in hazard intensity, engineering demand, and damage across regional building portfolios.
Earthquake & tsunami risk
Emmanuel Randle
Doctoral researcher in Civil Engineering
Oregon State University
I study how earthquakes and tsunamis affect buildings and the people who depend on them. My research follows uncertainty and correlation through models of damage and population displacement. I also develop catastrophe-risk models to explore what these relationships mean for insurance, reinsurance, and risk transfer.
Current research
Understanding regional disaster consequences
Two buildings can experience the same earthquake without behaving independently. I examine how relationships across locations and model stages affect the consequences we estimate for a community.
Damage & displacement
How physical damage propagates into residential displacement and other community consequences.
Independent project
Seismic Correlation and Insurance Loss
470 buildings / 2 million simulated years / 13 notebooks
An earthquake catastrophe-risk workflow connecting USGS seismic sources to building damage, insured loss, reinsurance requirements, and parametric basis risk.
Using a common event catalog, I compare how two spatial-correlation models change portfolio tails and the protection provided by the same reinsurance terms.
Beyond the research
Building a professional community
I serve as Co-Chair of OSU's SEI Student Chapter and Treasurer of its EERI Student Chapter. I coordinated a guest seminar with Swiss Re's Dr. Giannis Gidaris, inviting him, handling correspondence, and designing the event poster for a discussion of catastrophe models from a (re)insurer's perspective.